Is Now the Time to Buy Multifamily? Inside the DFW Market Reset

After years of a punishing correction, is the DFW multifamily market finally turning? On this episode of the Old Capital Real Estate Investing Podcast, host Paul Peebles sits down with co-host and active apartment buyer Michael Becker, Old Capital's own James Eng, and one of Dallas-Fort Worth's top investment sales brokers, Mark Allen of Colliers, to get two very different perspectives on where the market stands right now: the buyer's and the broker's.

Here's what they're seeing on the ground.

The market has entered a "resolution phase"
Mark Allen has spent the last decade brokering multifamily deals in DFW, one of the highest-velocity markets in the country. But the type of deal trading has shifted dramatically.

"Last year roughly about 60% of the trades were in the upper end of the quality spectrum," Mark explained. This year, it's flipped: nearly 60% of sales have been pre-1990s properties, workforce housing, short sales, and lender-owned assets.

"I look at this as really the resolution phase of the market," he said. "We're starting to resolve a lot of this distress."

The foreclosure numbers tell the story. In 2024, DFW saw roughly 10 multifamily foreclosures. Last year, that jumped to about 50. This year, the market is on pace for roughly 90 foreclosures, and it may accelerate.

Prices have reset, hard
The clearest sign of the reset is in pricing. Older workforce properties that once traded at $120,000 to $200,000 per unit are now, in many cases, selling for under $100,000 a unit. A 450-unit deal that once commanded a premium might now be a $30 million deal.

Michael Becker put the reset in the most striking terms possible. He's currently under contract on a North Austin property for less than the seller paid for it more than a decade ago, despite the area's population growing nearly 50% in that time.

"We're literally in contract to buy a deal for less than it was for 10 years ago, and that's shocking to see," Becker said. He's been calling it "The Lost Decade" in his quarterly newsletter.

In some cases, buyers can now purchase deals for 10-20% (or more) below not just what the owner paid, but below the lender's debt basis.

Why "surety of close" now beats price
In a choppy market, sellers care about one thing more than the highest offer: certainty that the deal will actually close.

"Surety of close is key in today's market, and so we're pushing that more so than ever," Mark said. "Not price, surety of close."

That's why local, proven buyers are winning deals over out-of-state "high flyers" who bid aggressively but may not have the equity to follow through. As Mark put it, taking a high-flyer off market often ends with the deal getting retraded or falling apart entirely.

The fundamentals are quietly firming
While the headlines focus on distress, Becker says the underlying fundamentals are the healthiest they've been in years. Across his portfolio of roughly 5,000 units in DFW, occupancy is strong.

"We're at the best spot from a portfolio-wide metric from the standpoint of occupancy, renewals, [that we've] been since probably the very beginning of 2023," he said. "We're 95% on average in DFW."

His secret? Meet the market. "Those of us willing to meet the market are able to meet the market," he said. The properties that aren't full, he noted, usually have an ownership or capital problem, not a demand problem.

Becker is optimistic about what's next: he expects Dallas to print positive rent growth in Q4 and Q1, and once two consecutive quarters show up in the data around April 2027, he believes capital will start flooding back, first into the best locations and quality, then filtering down.

Lenders are finally taking the hit
One of the biggest changes in this cycle: lenders are recognizing losses.

James Eng noted that on many distressed deals, lenders are taking discounted payoffs, sometimes 10-15% off the balance, sometimes 30-40%, and in cases involving fraud, even more than 50% off the loan.

In some situations, lenders are simply stepping aside. "Well, I'm not taking over this deal. Just bring in somebody new. And we're not financing it either," James said, describing the lender's mindset.

He even pointed to something he'd never seen before: deals where the owner pays the buyer to assume the loan, because the property is now worth less than the loan amount and selling outright would trigger a costly prepayment penalty. "That I've never seen in my career," James said.

How buyers are underwriting deals right now
So how are the buyers who are active pricing these deals? It depends on the buyer, Mark explained. Syndicators tend to be driven by leveraged returns, while many high-net-worth buyers keep it simple: a stabilized, unlevered yield on cost, often targeting around 150 basis points over what they consider the market cap rate.

For example, if the market cap rate for an 80s-vintage deal is around 6%, a buyer might underwrite to stabilize at a 7.5% yield on cost, after all their closing and renovation costs. Others are focused on stabilized cash-on-cash returns, or whether they can refinance and pull most of their equity back out at a 1.25 debt service coverage ratio.

The hard-won lesson: take your chips off the table
If there's one lesson from the last few years, it's about knowing when to sell.

"It's always easy with hindsight. You should have sold it all with hindsight, but you just never know exactly where it's going to go or how deep," Becker admitted, noting one deal he wishes he'd sold still "haunts me to this day."

His takeaway for operators: if your plan is to buy, renovate, and improve value, the end of that story should be to sell or refinance into long-term fixed-rate debt, not sit in an in-between debt structure. (As he noted, that 10-year fixed-rate agency loan is something Old Capital can help arrange.)

Tips for buyers and sellers
Mark closed with practical advice for both sides of the table:

For sellers: Vet your buyers. Make the transactional reference calls, and lean on your broker to relay how a buyer behaved on tours and in negotiations. That information is critical to picking a buyer who will actually close.

For buyers: Location is everything, and stay capitalized.

"Location is key," Mark said. "Obviously, I think you can make money in any kind of market, but if you're going into a rough, tough market that has heavy density of apartment communities, just make sure you have enough capital on hand to weather any storms." Being over-capitalized, he added, beats being under-capitalized every time.

Key Takeaways

• The market is in a "resolution phase", distress is clearing, with DFW foreclosures on pace for ~90 this year.

• Prices have reset hard, some deals are selling below their value from a decade ago, and even below the lender's debt basis.

• Surety of close beats price, sellers favor buyers who can actually close

• Fundamentals are firming, Becker's DFW portfolio is 95% occupied, the strongest since early 2023.

• Lenders are recognizing losses, discounted payoffs of 15-40%+ are becoming common.

• This may be the window, distressed pricing plus firming fundamentals is a rare combination.

Becker's bottom line
For those still waiting on the sidelines, Becker didn't mince words: "What are you waiting for? Now's the time... you're going to miss the train."

His verdict on the market?

"It's 2016 all over again... I could not be more bullish. Ring the bell at the bottom. It's go time."

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Want the full conversation? Listen to Episode 348 of the Old Capital Real Estate Investing Podcast for the complete breakdown from Michael Becker, Mark Allen, and James Eng.

Thinking about financing your next multifamily deal? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

The Biggest Expense in Multifamily: How to Fight Your Texas Property Taxes

For multifamily owners in Texas, no single line item hits harder than property taxes. They are the largest expense on almost every deal, and in a market where rents have flattened and expenses have crept up, winning your property tax appeal can be the difference between a deal that cash flows and one that doesn't.

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Ryan Heddleston and Clayton Sievers of Valorem, a property tax consulting firm that does one thing and one thing only: Texas multifamily. Between Clayton's years inside the appraisal districts and Ryan's 17 years operating apartments, they bring a rare "both sides of the table" view of how assessments actually get set, and how owners can push them down.

Here is what they shared.

A firm built for one job

Most property tax consultants are generalists who handle office, retail, industrial, and multifamily all at once. Valorem took the opposite approach.

"We only focus on this one discipline, which is multifamily, and we're only in the state of Texas," Ryan explained. "We're a specialist in this field, whereas there's a lot of generalists out there."

That focus, plus a team that came directly out of the Dallas, Denton, and Tarrant appraisal districts, has fueled fast growth. In roughly two years, the firm has grown to about 275 communities and become one of the fastest-growing consultants in DFW. Clayton started his career at the Dallas Central Appraisal District in 2015, worked his way up to senior appraiser, then spent seven years at a large consulting firm before co-founding Valorem. Knowing how the district thinks, he said, is a real edge.

First, the basics: how a Texas property tax appeal works

If you are new to owning in Texas, here is the timeline every owner lives by:

• April: The appraisal district mails your notice of value.

• May 15: The single most important deadline. You must file your appeal by then (you get 30 days from the notice date if they notify you late, but May 15 is the anchor).

• Informal review (roughly May to July): You exchange data with the district and try to reach an agreement. About 80% of properties settle here.

• ARB hearing (June to early July): The remaining properties go before a three-member Appraisal Review Board panel, where you and the district each present data and the board sets a value.

If you still don't like the ARB's number, you have another level. For properties assessed at $5 million or less, you can use binding arbitration, which is cheaper, faster, and doesn't require an attorney. For properties above $5 million, the path is litigation, filing suit against the appraisal district.

That word sounds more dramatic than it is. "It always sounds more intense than it is," Clayton said. "Really it's just the second phase of the appeal." In the major counties, he estimated that 80% to 95% of properties valued over $5 million go through litigation, it is relatively inexpensive, and it generally wraps up in 6 to 12 months.

What changed in 2026: the market finally caught up

For years, the winning strategy in Texas was "equal and uniform," arguing your value down by comparing it to similar properties. In a rising market, districts settled a lot of those cases informally because they couldn't defend a market-value argument.

This year flipped.

"Equal and uniform has reigned supreme for the longest time, all the way up until this year," Clayton said. "The values have caught up."

Two things followed. First, districts have become more hesitant to grant reductions, so more properties are heading to actual ARB hearings and litigation than Clayton has seen in years. Second, and more surprising to owners, many notified values in 2026 came in higher than 2025.

"The notified value in 2026 was higher than 2025," Clayton said, "and everyone in multifamily is looking around like, what is happening?"

The reason is mechanical. Districts run mass appraisal formulas, and they have largely kept their models the same since about 2023. Rather than touch cap rates, they are adjusting vacancy and expenses to preserve those cap rates, because they are not yet convinced the downturn is permanent. The good news: this was the first year the districts openly acknowledged that the distress is a market issue, not just a handful of bad operators. As Clayton put it, the "light bulb" went off this year, and he expects next year's notice values to be less egregious.

The new weapon: failed transactions

With market value now the main argument, Valorem leaned on its broker relationships and sales data. But the most powerful tool this year was something most owners never think to use: deals that fell apart.

"Something that was really powerful that we were able to provide this year was the failed transactions," Clayton said.

Here is why it matters. When a property is quietly marketed at $20 million, then re-guided to $15 million, and then either gets taken back by the bank or recapitalized, that price drop never becomes an official sale. It never shows up as a data point for the appraisal district. Valorem started collecting those failed deals, along with broker opinions of value (BOVs) and letters of intent (LOIs), to show districts that guidance prices in a submarket were running well below current assessments. It is not standard practice, but it is exactly the kind of aggressive, evidence-based argument that moves numbers.

A real example: $65 million down to $52 million, and heading lower

Clayton walked through one deal that shows how far off a mass-appraised value can be. The property, an early-2000s community near White Rock Lake in Dallas, sold for $56 million in 2024. The district notified it at $65 million, well above what it had just traded for, simply because that number was "equal and uniform" with similar-vintage properties in the area.

Valorem got it down to $52 million through the ARB and planned to file litigation with the goal of reaching the mid-to-high $40 million range.

"It's a good example of showing how far off the valuations can be," Clayton said, "and that there's still hope to be able to underwrite properties less than 100% in Dallas."

For buyers underwriting new deals, that is the lesson: don't accept the assessed value at face value. A disciplined appeal can meaningfully change your tax bill, and therefore your returns.

How to pay the bill without wrecking your cash flow

Even a great appeal takes time to settle, so how you pay matters. Tax bills come out in October and are due before February 1. Most owners pay the full liability and wait for a refund once the case settles, and that refund can take up to 90 days.

Clayton shared two ways to ease the cash-flow hit:

• Split payments (Tarrant and Bexar counties): These counties let you pay half before November 30 and defer the rest until June 30. If your lender allows it, you can settle and pay only the difference instead of waiting on a refund.

• Tax Code Section 42.08: If you have a lawsuit filed, you can pay based on last year's tax liability instead of the disputed amount. The unpaid balance accrues penalty and interest, but once you settle, you have 21 days to pay the difference penalty-and-interest-free. The catch: many lenders dislike seeing penalty and interest on a tax statement, so this option works best for owners whose lenders are comfortable with it.

The operator's real lever: rent and occupancy

Here is the most actionable takeaway for owners, and it surprises people. The single biggest thing you can do to lower your assessment is often tied to how you run the property.

Districts run your property on your reported market rent and then apply a stabilized occupancy, usually somewhere around 6% to 10% vacancy. If your property is actually sitting at 40% occupancy, you do not get credit for that pain, because they are pricing it as if it were stabilized.

That leads to a counterintuitive result. A property that cut rents about 10% but pushed occupancy up to 80% will usually earn a bigger assessment reduction than a property sitting at 50% occupancy with 50% collection loss.

"Rent at the end of the year is the most impactful change to the property that the appraisal district is going to look at," Clayton said.

His advice: track your rent over a three-year window, and bring your income statement to the protest when it helps your case. And these days, he noted, it almost always helps.

The bigger picture for operators

Ryan, who started operating in 2010, put the current environment in context. The 2010s were easy: low interest rates, cap rate compression, and steady rent growth. Today's operators are dealing with a glut of new supply on top of soft fundamentals.

"Being a really good operator now, in light of all the challenges, just means you've got to control expenses along every line item," Ryan said. Insurance, he noted, has come way down, which is a meaningful relief, but labor and other operating costs remain stubborn.

That pressure is exactly why he helped build a tax firm focused only on multifamily: to be "super aggressive for the client in pushing the envelope and finding new strategies to lower that number one expense for all of us, which is property taxes."

What owners should do before next April

If you settled your 2026 value, don't just file it away. Between now and the next notice, Ryan and Clayton recommend:

• Have your ARB result reviewed to decide whether litigation makes sense.

• Track your rent and occupancy trends carefully, since that data drives next year's argument.

• Get a second opinion. Valorem offers free portfolio reviews to tell owners whether their current consultant is leaving money on the table, or doing just fine.

Key Takeaways

• Property taxes are the number one expense in Texas multifamily, and a disciplined appeal directly affects your returns.

• May 15 is the deadline that matters. Miss it and you lose your appeal for the year.

• 2026 flipped the playbook. Market value, not equal and uniform, drove almost every appeal, and many notified values came in higher than last year.

• Failed transactions are powerful evidence. Re-trades, dropped guidance prices, and lender takebacks show the district where the market really is.

• Rent and occupancy are your biggest lever. Districts stabilize your property, so improving occupancy (even at lower rents) can drive a bigger reduction.

• Plan your payment. Split-payment counties and Tax Code 42.08 can protect cash flow while your case settles.

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The bottom line

In a tougher market, you cannot control interest rates or supply, but you can control your expenses, and your biggest one is your tax bill. As Clayton showed with the White Rock Lake deal, the gap between a mass-appraised value and reality can be millions of dollars. The owners who treat property taxes as a strategy, not a bill, are the ones who protect their returns.

Thinking about financing your next Texas multifamily deal, or want to underwrite one the right way, taxes included? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

Raising Equity in Today's Market with Cash Flow Portal

Raising capital for a multifamily deal is harder today than it has been in years. Fewer people are buying, investors are cautious, and the GPs who are still active are moving at a fraction of their old pace. So how do you keep raising, and keep your investors confident, in a market like this?

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Perry Zheng, founder and CEO of Cash Flow Portal, to talk through the state of capital raising and to walk, live, through the software many syndicators now use to run their entire business. Perry is not just a software founder. He is an engineer who got into syndications in 2019 (with James as his lender on a few of those deals), so he sees this market as both a technologist and a fellow GP.

Here is what they covered.

The state of capital raising: about 30% of the old pace

Perry did not sugarcoat the environment. Across his customer base of general partners, the slowdown is dramatic.

"The trend for the GPs is that people are raising about 30% the speed as they used to," he said.

As a GP himself, he feels it. His response as a software company has been to keep building in the background, even when some tools are not in heavy demand yet.

"It's a good time to develop our muscle for the prime time," Perry said. "One day the market will come back. One day they will be underwriting and managing their assets again."

That is a useful mindset for operators too. The people who use this quieter stretch to sharpen their underwriting, tighten their operations, and get their investor systems in order will be the ones ready to move fast when deal flow returns.

One platform to run the whole syndication

Cash Flow Portal started as cap table management software, a tool to help GPs raise equity and streamline investor relations. The vision now is much bigger: a single operating system for a private equity firm.

Perry drew a comparison to Toast, the restaurant software.

"Toast has the payroll, the restaurant configuration, the POS, gift cards, website, banking, the entire vertical," he explained. Because Toast knows so much about a restaurant's data, it can even act as a lender when that restaurant wants to open a new location. "That is the similar vision that we have for general partners."

In other words, the goal is to take a GP from underwriting a deal all the way through raising, managing, distributing, and filing taxes, all in one place.

"We are creating that future," Perry said. "That is the entire operating system they need to run their private equity firm business."

He then shared his screen and walked through it, start to finish.

It starts with AI underwriting

The first stop for many new GPs is the AI underwriting tool. You upload your rent roll and T12, and the software automatically builds the unit mix and pulls in income and expenses. From there, it behaves like a spreadsheet, but you can talk to it.

"You can say, 'Can you make it such that I have a preferred equity partner come in,'" Perry said, "and then the waterfall will get updated automatically."

The model runs distribution waterfalls, pre-generates a sensitivity analysis by simulating different purchase prices against the resulting returns, and even handles feeder funds. In the live demo, James asked the kind of question a real operator would ask, which unit type has the highest vacancy, and the AI read the rent roll and answered (one unit type was running 20% vacancy).

The AI does not just read the model, it can write to it. When the property tax line was hardcoded at 1.6%, Perry told the assistant to look up the county millage rate for that address and update the tax. It searched, found the rate, and changed the number to 2.23%. As Perry put it, "People use it to look up rents, to update the waterfall, to update the model."

Then the raise: marketing, CRM, and one clean link

Once a deal is under contract, the platform shifts to the raise. There is a full CRM and marketing layer, "think Mailchimp or HubSpot," Perry said, that lets you send campaigns, track who opened your emails, drop warm leads into drip campaigns, take meeting notes, and see how much each of your investor relations people has closed.

When an investor is interested, everything funnels through a single link. Prospects open one clean deal room where they can watch the video or webinar, review the offering, and click "invest now" to choose their entity, connect their bank, sign documents, and complete accreditation and compliance (KYB/KYC).

James, who is on the receiving end of a lot of these offerings, gave it a genuine compliment. "It's a lot clearer than other portals," he said. "Ours is pretty clean," Perry agreed.

Distributions without the spreadsheet panic

Distributions are where a lot of GPs lose time and sleep. Cash Flow Portal breaks it into two parts: calculating the money and transferring it. You plug in a single number, say you want to distribute $100,000, and the waterfall engine allocates it to every investor by their amount, labeling what is preferred return and what is not.

The feature Perry is proudest of solves a very familiar headache: your numbers not matching your spreadsheet. The platform shows a visual walk-through of every investor moving through each waterfall hurdle, and you can upload your own spreadsheet and ask the AI why the two do not line up.

"The AI is like, 'Hey, on your spreadsheet your preferred return starts on January 1st, but in Cash Flow Portal it starts on February 1st, and that's maybe why your calculations are different,'" Perry said. "That's the most aha moment for our customers today."

The part that matters most right now: asset management

This is where the conversation got most useful for operators. Cash Flow Portal's asset management tool (branded "Asset Intelligence") syncs with property management software like AppFolio, Yardi, Rent Manager, or RealPage, or simply reads reports you forward to a dedicated email address. It then compares your original underwriting against actual performance and tells you, with a high degree of certainty, whether you are on track to hit your projected first-year cash-on-cash, or whether you need to change course. From there, it is one click to send investor updates, and LPs can see live charts of occupancy and collections on their dashboard.

James, who reviews dozens of these deals, explained why this matters so much in today's market. Most GP reports, he said, highlight occupancy and maybe some capex, but the real story is buried.

"It's up to me to open it and go to page 12 and look at the net rental trend," he said. "Most GPs don't have a dashboard showing rents, other income, expenses, and the major changes."

He pointed to two problems the tool solves. The first is time. "It's August now, but I'm getting June financials, so you're almost a month and a half behind," he said. A direct connection that refreshes weekly beats waiting on a property manager who may or may not send you an update.

The second is discovery, and Perry told a story every operator will recognize. He was in Texas visiting two of his properties, trying to set a staff bonus tied to last month's collections, and he simply could not find the number in his property management system.

"I searched for the word 'collections,' I couldn't find it. I searched for 'transactions,' I couldn't," he said. "I don't know which report I should be looking at. Even if I click into it, I don't know what variables I need to supply." The fix is being able to ask in plain language: "What were my June collections?"

James tied it back to the current debt environment. "Depending on the debt that they have, operations is super important right now," he said. When margins are tight, you cannot afford to be six weeks behind on your own numbers.

Accounting, K1s, and the tax-season bottleneck

The last piece ties everything together: accounting and compliance. A syndication is not one set of books. There are operating financials, a GP capital account earning treasury rates, and a separate capex account, and at year end all of it has to consolidate into QuickBooks so you can file your syndication taxes. It gets even messier when a fund owns multiple properties.

Perry described the industry's real pain point: January through March, when accountants are buried, reconciling asset-level financials against investor-level financials, often because QuickBooks does not carry the right LP capital balances. "If they don't match up, they couldn't even file the taxes," he said.

Cash Flow Portal built double-entry accounting at the property level, across multiple properties, and at the full syndication level, and it partners with a set of accountants it works with weekly to actually file K1s. "We're not CPAs," Perry noted, "but our preferred partner will do your K1s, and they are very reputable in the space."

A marketplace for capital

Perry also highlighted a newer piece, investbased.com, which he described as "a Yelp for capital raising." GPs build a reviewed profile to reach more potential LPs, and investors can search a GP's reviews before committing. One customer, Granite Towers, had just picked up a 5.0-star rating during the interview.

Key Takeaways

• Capital raising has slowed hard. GPs are raising at roughly 30% of their old pace, so systems and investor trust matter more than ever.

• Use the slow market to build muscle. The operators sharpening their underwriting and operations now will be ready when deal flow returns.

• AI underwriting is here. You can upload a rent roll and T12 and adjust the model in plain language, including pulling live data like county tax rates.

• A clean, single investor link matters. A clear deal room reduces friction and, as James noted, stands out from cluttered portals.

• Asset management is the sleeper priority. In a tight-margin, tricky-debt market, a live dashboard beats digging through page 12 of a PDF that is already six weeks old.

• Plan for tax season early. Reconciled accounting throughout the year is what makes K1s painless in the January-to-March crunch.

The bottom line

Perry's message for this market was optimistic in a grounded way. Deal volume is down, but that makes it the perfect time to get your systems, your underwriting, and your investor reporting into shape. As he put it, the caterpillar is becoming a butterfly. The GPs who come out of this stretch with tight operations and confident investors will be the ones ready to move when the market turns.

Thinking about your next multifamily raise, or how to finance the deal behind it? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

How Multifamily Owners Can Find the Best Deal on Power with Compare Power

Electricity is one of the quietest line items in a multifamily budget, and one of the most overlooked. Most owners assume their tenants cover it, or that the rate is whatever the rate is. But on a 200 or 300-unit property, the difference between a good power contract and a bad one can be real money every month, and there's even a way to turn it into a new revenue stream.

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Ryan Rekieta, who leads the multifamily practice at Compare Power, to break down how Texas electricity actually works, what owners should be paying, and how to stop leaving money on the table.

Here's what they covered.

How Compare Power started

Compare Power was founded about 17 years ago to solve a very Texas problem. The founder, Brad, had just moved in from California and, for the first time in his life, had to choose an electric provider just to get the lights on in his apartment.

With an engineering background, he pulled up a spreadsheet, mapped out all the suppliers and plans, and quickly realized how confusing the whole thing was for a normal person who just wants their power turned on. So he built Compare Power to do the shopping for you. Today the platform compares over 17 electric suppliers in Texas and more than 100 plans based on your location, and it has enrolled roughly 3 million Texans in their electric plans.

Ryan joined at the beginning of the year to build out the multifamily side, and it has grown fast. His background spans software sales and real estate data (he spent four years at CREXi before this), so he knows the owner and broker world well.

Supplier vs utility: the misconception that costs owners money

The single most useful thing Ryan explained is the difference between your supplier and your utility, because most people get this wrong.

The supplier is simply who you buy your electricity from: TXU, Reliant, Just Energy, and so on. The utility is the company that actually owns the wires and delivers the power. In North Texas that's Oncor, and in Houston it's CenterPoint. No matter which supplier you pick, the electricity itself is identical, and the same utility flips the switch.

"The utility company, they're the ones actually flipping the switch and turning the lights on," Ryan said. "It really does not matter much who the supplier is at the end of the day, which is a common misconception."

The practical upshot: switching suppliers is easy. Unlike changing property management companies, which is a major operational headache, changing your electricity supplier is nearly seamless. The power never goes off, and nothing about the service changes. You're just paying a different, hopefully lower, rate.

The three layers of electricity in an apartment deal

Owners often say, "My tenants pay the electric bill, so this doesn't apply to me." Ryan pushed back on that. In a multifamily property, there are actually three separate layers of electricity, and owners are on the hook for at least two of them.

1. Common areas. Your lobby, pool, maintenance buildings, and shared spaces all draw power, and the property pays for it.

2. Vacancies. You still have to keep the lights and AC on in vacant units so they don't sit dark and hot. This is handled through what's called a CSA, or Continuing Service Agreement.

3. Resident units. Unless it's an all-bills-paid property, residents choose their own provider for their unit.

Compare Power covers all three. For the common areas and CSAs, which usually go hand in hand, you send them last month's bill and the date your current contract is up, and they shop it.

What owners are actually paying, and the target

Commercial electricity pricing works differently from residential. It's based on your total usage, and the rates move constantly.

"It is a lot like the stock market," Ryan said. "Each day on commercial electricity, those prices change."

He's seen a wide range. On the low end, rates around 6.8 cents per kilowatt hour. On the high end, one operator didn't realize their contract had expired and rolled to month-to-month, and they were paying 23 cents per kilowatt hour on an all-bills-paid complex. Compare Power was able to save them a significant amount.

His rule of thumb for today's market: "Right now you want to stay under eight." Common areas might run around 7 cents, with CSAs and vacancies slightly higher at around 7.5 cents, since those are priced a little differently.

James shared a personal example that shows how big the gap can be. On his own home, his existing provider offered a renewal around 17 cents per kilowatt hour. When he checked Compare Power, the best plans were 10 to 11 cents. Same electricity, dramatically different price.

Contracts and the fine print

Multifamily power contracts are typically three years, though they can be shorter or longer. And like a loan, they come with penalties for leaving early.

"They usually do have early termination fees," Ryan said, comparing them to the prepayment penalties owners know from lending. One nuance worth knowing: CSAs (the vacancy coverage) are often available month-to-month, so you can get out of those quickly. Suppliers usually try to tie your CSA to your main commercial plan, but you don't have to. You can run a different provider for your CSA than for your common areas if it saves money.

Turn a tenant expense into a revenue stream

This is the part most owners have never thought about. That third layer, residents choosing their own provider, is usually treated as "not my problem." Ryan argues it's actually a missed opportunity.

When a resident is approved for their lease, the leasing office typically tells them to go online and set up power somewhere. That moment, Ryan said, is the perfect place to insert Compare Power. Using a trackable link or QR code for each property, the new resident gets sent to Compare Power, which shops for their best rate and plan, and then pays a revenue share back to the property for the referral.

"They get the best rate, they get to save money so they can still pay rent to you each month," Ryan said. "But then you also get a revenue share on the back end, because you were our source of that referral."

He contrasted this with programs run by individual suppliers, which lock tenants into one company's plans. With Compare Power, the tenant keeps the full range of options and the best price, and the owner still earns on the referral. It's a rare setup where the resident wins and the owner wins at the same time.

Beyond electricity: gas, storage, and a utility concierge

Compare Power's reach isn't limited to apartments. "Anywhere that there is a meter, we cover," Ryan said. That includes self-storage facilities, RV parks, and other commercial properties, which many multifamily owners also happen to own.

A few other useful notes:

• Timing matters. Electricity prices in Texas are seasonal, and shopping during the brutal summer months can put you at a pricing disadvantage. Part of the value is knowing when to shop.

• Gas. Natural gas is usually a single regulated option in Texas, so there's less room to shop unless you have properties in other deregulated states, but they can still take a look.

• Utility concierge. In Texas, Compare Power also offers a full concierge with vetted vendors, so tenants or owners can get help setting up internet, renters insurance, and home security, on top of the electric plan.

How to get a quick check on your bill

The process to see if you're overpaying is simple. Send Ryan your most recent bill and a copy of your current contract, and he'll review whether you can beat your current rate and when the best time to shop again is. He handles multifamily owners personally to make sure the supplier relationships are leveraged fully.

You can reach him at ryan.rekieta@comparepower.com.

Key Takeaways

• You pay for more power than you think. Common areas and vacant-unit coverage (CSAs) are on the owner, even when residents pay their own units.

• Supplier vs utility is the key concept. The utility (Oncor, CenterPoint) delivers identical power no matter which supplier you choose, so switching for a better rate is easy and risk-free.

• Know your target. Commercial rates move daily like the stock market. Right now, aim to stay under 8 cents per kilowatt hour, and watch for contracts that roll to expensive month-to-month rates.

• Mind the contract. Multifamily power deals are usually 3 years with early termination fees, though CSAs are often month-to-month.

• Turn power into revenue. A resident referral link or QR code lets tenants get the best rate while the property earns a revenue share on every move-in.

• Anywhere with a meter counts. Self-storage, RV parks, gas, and utility concierge services are all fair game.

The bottom line

Electricity is easy to ignore until you realize how much a bad contract quietly costs, or how much a smart setup can earn. As Ryan showed, the same power delivered by the same utility can range from 8 cents to 23 cents depending on nothing more than who's paying attention. For multifamily owners squeezed on every expense line right now, this is one of the easier wins available, and it can even become a new source of income.

Thinking about your next multifamily deal and how the numbers pencil out, expenses included? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

Latest in bank lending with Robert Cannaday of Great Plains Bank

With the agencies pulling back on smaller loans, community and regional banks have quietly become one of the most important sources of financing for multifamily buyers, especially on deals under $5 million. So what are banks actually lending on right now, what does it take to qualify, and how should you think about recourse and today's wave of loan maturities?

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Robert Cannaday, Market President of Great Plains Bank, for a straight-talk look at bank lending in this market.

Here's what they covered.

Meet Great Plains Bank

Great Plains Bank is a community bank based in Oklahoma City with five locations in Texas. Robert has been in banking since 2011, spending most of the last dozen years in commercial lending for real estate investors, financing buyers to purchase and build investment real estate.

The bank sits at just under $2 billion in assets, a size Robert described as the sweet spot for a community bank. It's big enough to have real lending capacity for its customers, but still small enough to feel like a one or two-branch community bank where relationships matter. They lend across business banking, from commercial real estate investors to business owners and consumers.

2021 versus today: money got more expensive, and that's not all bad

James asked Robert to contrast the loans he was doing in 2020 and 2021 with today, since most people's memory only stretches back a few years.

Back then, Robert said, it was "kind of crazy." The bank was doing all sorts of deals, including a lot of multifamily bridge financing for buyers looking to improve properties and bump rents. Rates were in the high 4s and low 5s, and money was flowing freely. "Everybody was making it," he said.

Today is a different world. Money is more expensive, deals don't pencil as well, and borrowers need more equity and more guarantor strength to make a deal work. But Robert's take on that shift was refreshing.

"It honestly kind of feels better. It feels more stable," he said. "It doesn't feel like everybody that wants to get into investment real estate is getting into it now. It seems more calculated, and I feel like we're making safer bets than we were back in 2020, 2021."

His read on the industry: underwriting standards have tightened to a healthy point. Not so tight that nobody can get a loan, but tight enough that banks and lenders are being smarter than they were.

How bank pricing actually works: it all starts with Prime

One of the most useful parts of the conversation was Robert explaining how a bank prices a loan, because it's very different from agency debt.

"We base all of our interest rates on prime," he said, meaning the Wall Street Journal Prime rate, which was 6.75% at the time of the interview. A clean, straightforward deal, strong property, strong cash flow, strong guarantors, is priced right at Prime. Robert calls that a "prime deal."

From there, price goes up with risk. Add a value-add component, construction, stabilization risk, or a weaker location, and the rate climbs. "Your highest price deal that we are doing these days is Prime Plus two, which has a lot of risk to it," Robert said. So today's range at Great Plains runs from about 6.75% on a spotless deal up to roughly 8.75% on the hairiest ones.

What they're lending on right now

Robert ran through some of the deals the bank has closed this year, and the variety tells you a lot about where opportunity is:

• Mixed-use / small multifamily: A Dallas building that needed significant rehab, actually converting the multifamily portion into live-work office space, a pivot away from multifamily.

• Retail strip centers: Close to $10 million in retail alone this year, some value-add, some stabilized. "We've been seeing pretty good things in retail for the right operators," he said.

• Assisted living: These have been hit hard, and distressed properties are coming up through foreclosures and auctions. Experienced operators are buying them at around half the appraised value of the real estate.

• Spec construction: In hot, higher-income single-family markets like Highland Park, Southlake, and Westlake. They avoid the softer DFW single-family construction markets.

• Odds and ends: Equipment loans for a moving company, government leasing, single-family fix-and-flips for the right borrowers, and land and lot loans for future builds.

The gap the agencies left

James highlighted a big shift on the agency side. Earlier this year, Freddie Mac's Small Balance Loan (SBL) program was doing non-recourse loans from $1 million up to $7.5 million, with roughly 30-year amortization, a couple years of interest-only, and rates in the high 5s to low 6s while Treasuries were down. Then that program went away.

The result: it's now genuinely difficult to get agency loans under $2 million, and often even under $5 million. That's exactly the space community banks like Great Plains fill.

What it takes to qualify for a sub-$5 million multifamily loan

This is the practical roadmap for a buyer. Robert said $5 million and under is right in the bank's sweet spot, in fact, their average loan size is under $1 million, so they like granular portfolios.

For a $5 million multifamily deal at a prime rate, here's the profile they want to see:

• The property: Stabilized, with a 1.25x debt service coverage ratio. Interestingly, occupancy isn't the deciding factor. "If it's at 80% occupied and it can cash flow, great," Robert said, though typically it takes low-90s occupancy to hit that 1.25 coverage.

• Guarantor net worth: At least $5 million, roughly equal to the purchase price.

• Post-closing liquidity: Well over 10% of the asset value, so around $500,000 in the bank after closing on a $5 million deal.

• Outside income: The bank wants guarantors who have income beyond the property, enough to support themselves and provide a cushion. As Robert put it, if the property has a rough year, "we had a lot of stuff break last year and we've got an $80,000 tax bill coming up," it helps to have a guarantor who can simply write that check and keep moving.

How fast can you close?

If you're racing a year-end deadline, banks can move. Robert said Great Plains can close in 30 days if needed, though the average on a larger commercial transaction is about 45 days. The key is getting everything to them up front.

Recourse, explained without the fear

A lot of buyers coming from the non-recourse agency world are nervous about recourse. Robert broke it down in plain terms.

"If the bank takes a loss, the bank expects you to write a check for it," he said. That's really all recourse means.

Here's how it plays out. If you have a lot of equity and you decide to hand the keys back, the bank forecloses and markets the property with local brokers to get top dollar. If they recover their money or break even, "you don't owe us anything, because we didn't take a loss." Only if there's a real deficit do you get a letter asking you to cover the shortfall.

And it can cut in the borrower's favor. Robert mentioned one foreclosure he has in mind that will sell for far more than the bank is owed, meaning the borrower walks away owing nothing. They lose their equity, but the bank isn't coming after them for more.

The maturity wall, and how a bank handles a workout

James pointed to a wave that's hitting the market right now. Back in 2021 and 2022, on larger deals ($20 million and up), bridge lenders often extended loans even when borrowers couldn't hit the 1.25x coverage test the loan agreement required. Now those extensions are running out, the real fifth-year maturity is arriving, and lenders are taking deals back and listing them for sale.

So how does a bank like Great Plains handle a struggling loan at maturity? Property first, Robert said.

"When we renew a deal, we're looking at the property first and foremost. Does the property make sense? If the property is still generating enough cash flow, we're going to renew it. If it's not, that's when we're going to start looking at the guarantors."

He shared a telling example. One property has been "sucking air" for a while and isn't close to cash flowing. But the guarantors stepped up, kept the loan current, and even paid the property taxes out of pocket, and they still have strong balance sheets and income. That deal will likely get renewed for another five years. The borrowers won't get a premium rate, but they'll renew without injecting new cash, keep the property, keep paying down principal and building equity, and be in a great spot when the market recovers. As Robert put it, it's about "weathering the storm."

That's the real argument for banking with a relationship lender: a bank that knows you and believes in your character is far more likely to work with you through a rough patch than a faceless debt fund.

Why a community bank

With thousands of banks out there, what sets Great Plains apart? Robert's answer was speed and common sense.

"A lot of bigger banks have a very strict policy they have to stick to. We don't," he said. "We like to consider ourselves common sense bankers. If the deal makes sense, we'll get it done, and we'll get it done quickly."

He was honest about the tradeoff. "We're never going to be the cheapest, and we're not going to have the longest amortization or the longest interest-only period. But there's certainty in our ability to execute."

In a market where certainty of close has become everything, that's a real advantage.

Key Takeaways

• Banks now fill the small-loan gap. With agency programs pulling back under $5 million, community banks are the go-to for smaller multifamily deals.

• Bank pricing is Prime-based. A clean deal prices at Prime (6.75%), and risk pushes it up toward Prime Plus 2.

• Know the borrower profile. For a sub-$5M loan: a stabilized asset at 1.25x DSCR, guarantor net worth near the purchase price, post-closing liquidity above 10%, and outside income.

• Recourse is simpler than it sounds. If the bank takes a loss, you cover it. If they break even at foreclosure, you owe nothing.

• Relationships matter at maturity. A bank that trusts strong guarantors will renew and weather the storm, something a debt fund rarely does.

• Speed and certainty win. Community banks may not be the cheapest, but they can close in 30 to 45 days and execute.

The bottom line

The easy-money era of 2021 is gone, and Robert's point is that this is actually healthier. Lending is more disciplined, borrowers are more serious, and the banks still writing loans are making safer bets. For buyers chasing deals under $5 million, a relationship-driven community bank may be the most reliable path to the closing table, and to a partner who will stand with you when the market gets bumpy.

Looking at a multifamily deal and weighing your financing options? The Old Capital team can help you find the right structure. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

DFW Property Management Update with JC Castillo of Velo Residential

Behind every multifamily deal is the day-to-day reality of running it, and right now, that reality is telling a very different story than the headlines. Occupancy games, negative lease tradeouts, distressed takeovers, and a "ripple effect" quietly reshaping who lives where. To make sense of it, you need someone in the trenches.

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with JC Castillo of Velo Residential for an unusually candid look at what's actually happening in Dallas-Fort Worth property management, and where the green shoots are starting to show.

Here's what they covered.

Meet Velo Residential

JC has been in the multifamily business for about 20 years, most of it in DFW. He started as an operator, buying, owning, and running his own portfolio, and built his own management company from the ground up. About four or five years ago, he launched Velo Residential as a separate company focused on helping other owners run more profitable, lower-stress properties while giving residents a product they actually love.

The timing was memorable. Velo launched in 2020. "What a time to start a management company," James joked. But as JC pointed out, great management matters more in a hard market than an easy one. When renewing residents have endless options and vacant units are everywhere, the quality of your operations is often what separates a deal that survives from one that doesn't.

How due diligence changed: from "91 to 95%" to "can you survive?"

The clearest sign of how much the market has shifted is in how Velo evaluates a new client today versus in 2021 and 2022.

Back then, JC said, the conversation was almost carefree: don't worry too much about reserves, no need to dig into the loan structure, the aged payables are probably fine, the property is at 91%, let's get it humming at 94 to 95%. Owners' biggest concern was upside: "My in-place rent roll is 15% below market, bring those up," with new lease tradeouts running 10 to 15% higher.

Today, the questions are entirely different. "Let's see what your aged payables look like. What kind of debt structure do you have? Do you have floating rate debt? When is your rate cap expiring? Do you have enough reserves for a rainy day? Is there deferred maintenance?" And it's simply assumed there will be occupancy challenges.

The single most important question now, JC said, is whether an owner can make it through the next one to two years. Interestingly, he noted that foreclosure or lender-takeback deals are often the cleaner ones to take over, because the new owner is coming in with a plan to recapitalize and a more stable debt structure.

The ripple effect: why the C-class is struggling

James asked a sharp question: everyone expected new supply to pressure the A-class, but why is the C-class struggling? Have those tenants moved up, or is immigration cutting demand? JC's answer was that immigration is an issue, but "it gets overplayed big time." The real story is a ripple effect, and he illustrated it with Sherman, Texas, the poster child for an oversupplied market.

In Sherman, a 1980s one-bedroom might rent for around $950. Meanwhile a brand-new property comes out of the ground, sits at maybe 10% occupied, and offers a comparable unit for around $1,000 to $1,050, plus concessions. "Three to four months," JC emphasized. "I didn't say weeks. I said three to four months of concession."

Here's the chain reaction that sets off. B-class tenants jump to the shiny new A deals for a few months of free rent. Those deals come with hooks, a $300 rent bump at renewal, but tenants think about the immediate savings, not 12 months out, and oversupplied owners often can't get that bump anyway. As B renters move up, C renters move into the discounted B product.

JC's favorite analogy: "It's like dropping a big rock into a steel pond." The rock lands where the new supply is (the A's), creating a huge ripple, but the ripples keep spreading to the B's and the C's.

The problem is the bottom of the chain. "There's no one to fill the C space," he said. "The people that are filling the C stuff are the people you kind of don't want to rent to, because they don't qualify, the people that have gotten evicted from another place." So C-class occupancy drops with no one to backfill.

The whole thing has to play out, JC explained. The A's fill up and start pushing rents, B renters move back to B's, C renters move back to C's. It's starting in some markets, but overall he estimates the market is 12 to 36 months from full stabilization. DFW is still growing, with strong job growth and a decent economy, but there's a "hangover supply" that has to be absorbed first.

The distressed playbook: what lenders are really doing

Velo has taken over several deals directly for lenders, and JC pulled back the curtain on how those work. A lender takes a property back, then calls: "I've got a 45% occupied property, it's a B-minus/C deal, there's a ton of deferred maintenance. Fix this deal."

In one case, a lender about to foreclose came to Velo through a broker and offered something smart: a bonus to come in and fix the broken property over three to six months, even if Velo didn't win the long-term management contract afterward. JC called that brilliant, because management companies don't actually make money until they hold a property long term. "You are really investing in a deal for the first 6 to 12 months before you start to get a return." Without that bonus, a short-term takeover is a punishing, unprofitable lift.

Even better is when a lender approaches the budget collaboratively. Rather than dictate terms, the smart ones say: I'm upside down, I don't want to pour money in, tell me the best use of my capital to get this off my balance sheet fast. That kicks off a trade-off analysis. Getting to 90% occupancy might take 9 to 12 months and a mountain of capital. The alternative: kick out the non-paying "bad apples," take physical occupancy down to the roughly 55% that reflects the true economic occupancy anyway, start paying the bills, and keep a punch list of what the next buyer needs to do.

JC compared it to restoring an old car. "You strip it down to the metal. You get it ready for a refurbish, but you don't actually do the refurbishing." Then you hand the next owner good bones and tell them to just paint it, put the wheels on, and go.

2025 vs 2026: the story that gets a deal bought

One of the most quotable moments captured how buyer psychology has shifted in a single year.

"In 2025, everybody was trying to buy deals where the story was the seller's losing all their equity," JC said. "In 2026, an investor is only coming in when the seller lost all its equity and the lender lost some of it. You're buying for less than the loan."

That, he said, is the story a buyer now needs to hear before they'll even look at a deal. Painful for sellers, but that's the market.

Who's buying now

So who's actually transacting? JC said brokers are the real-time pulse of the market, and they're bringing Velo new deals from new ownership groups. Activity on distressed assets is picking up, and lenders are finally capitulating, shifting from "we'll look at offers but we're not sure we'll move" to "we're doing deals, bring us something that works."

The capital is coming from out of state, New York, Canada, California, "big money starting to come to Dallas on their planes," looking to build a presence. Many lack a local track record, so brokers pair them with Velo for the local-knowledge story. The price points are dramatically lower than before, though JC was honest that the bases still aren't no-brainers, because they assume the market stays as-is. His bet is that the C-class comes back in about three years, and those bases will look far better then.

The hidden squeeze on management companies

JC shared something most owners never hear: management companies themselves are getting squeezed.

"Management companies right now are not making as much profits as they would like," he said, "because you have to have a lot more people per unit to keep your head above water." In a competitive, distressed market, the workload per property multiplies, more work orders, more site staff and oversight, more accounting, especially when a property is carrying half a million dollars in aged payables.

That means putting more people per unit than in 2020, which cuts into margins. But JC framed it as the right investment. "It's not about making a buck right now. It's about building the foundation," he said, and not burning out your people. Smart management companies are using this stretch to invest in talent, betting on a light at the end of the tunnel.

The good news: green shoots are real

Asked to end with good news, JC didn't hesitate. In the core of the metro, the best-positioned properties are starting to fill up, with upside in both physical and economic occupancy, and delinquency ticking down. To him, that's a signal that more good is coming.

There's a second-order benefit too. As top properties fill and can't take everyone, that overflow demand starts flowing to the next tier of properties, even ones with a more mediocre reputation. In other words, a rising tide eventually lifts the weaker assets. "The market's recovering, and you can buy at a good basis," he said. "That's the plan."

JC's parting advice: give yourself grace

JC closed with something more human than tactical. "Give yourself some grace," he tells his team. The last four years have been as tough as any in his two decades in the business, and a lot of people are quietly going through hard times.

"We are not robots," he said. His message: be understanding of your team, stay patient, and remember that good things happen to those who stay long-term minded, especially when so much is outside your control right now.

Key Takeaways

• Due diligence has flipped. The question is no longer "how much upside," it's "can this owner survive the next one to two years."

• The C-class squeeze is a ripple, not immigration. New supply pushes B renters up and C renters up, leaving no one to backfill the bottom.

• Distressed takeovers follow a playbook. Smart lenders pay to strip a property "down to the metal" and prep it for the next buyer rather than fully rehab it.

• The 2026 buy story: investors now step in only when the seller lost their equity and the lender took a haircut too, buying below the loan.

• Management is getting squeezed. More people per unit means thinner margins, so good operators are investing in talent and building for the recovery.

• Green shoots are here. The best-positioned metro properties are filling up, delinquency is easing, and the recovery appears to be starting.

The bottom line

JC's message balanced hard truth with real optimism. The market still has a supply hangover to work through, and the next 12 to 36 months will test operators. But the distress is creating genuine buying opportunities, capital is flowing back into DFW, and the earliest signs of recovery are already visible in the best-run properties. As JC put it, this is a time to put in the work, invest in your people, and stay long-term minded.

Buying a distressed or value-add deal and want to make sure the numbers, and the debt, actually work? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

Fannie Mae Update with Fritz Waldvogel of Colliers

For any multifamily buyer, the agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are the backbone of permanent financing. So when the market gets choppy, the question every sponsor asks is: are the agencies still lending, what will they lend on, and how do I get my deal to the closing table?

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Fritz Waldvogel of Colliers to get a clear read on where agency lending stands, when a HUD loan makes sense, and the massive refinance wave already forming on the horizon.

Here's what they covered.

Meet Fritz Waldvogel and Colliers

Fritz leads multifamily financing through Fannie Mae and HUD/FHA at Colliers, which recently rebranded from Colliers Mortgage to Colliers Debt and Structured Finance. He and his team have done roughly two to three billion dollars in transactions with Old Capital over the years, and Colliers has sponsored the Old Capital Conference all ten years, since before day one, as James put it.

From bridge to agency: how the market flipped

Fritz and James started by reminiscing about 2021 and 2022. Back then, bridge debt ruled. "I think 85 to 90% of what we financed in 21 and 22 was bridge," Fritz said, and a lot of those bridge deals were only qualifying at 30 to 40% leverage on an agency basis. In other words, borrowers were reaching for aggressive bridge loans on deals that agencies would only have lightly leveraged.

Today, that has reversed, and the agencies have moved back to center stage.

The agencies have money to lend

Here's reassuring news for buyers: liquidity is not the problem. In 2025, both agencies came close to their targets, doing around $70 billion combined, a big number given where they'd been. For 2026, their allocations were raised considerably to roughly $88 billion.

"There's still plenty of liquidity through the end of the year," Fritz said. The real constraint isn't the lender's willingness, it's finding deals that pencil. Investment sales activity has been slower than expected, which was supposed to drive a lot of this year's financing volume.

Refi vs acquisition: now a 50/50 market

Last year, Fritz's business was roughly 75% refinances and 25% acquisitions. This year it's closer to 50/50. The swing factor is whether the seller's bid-ask spread has finally narrowed enough for a deal to work.

The deals that are trading, he noted, tend to be one-off stabilized properties where an owner has a low enough basis (they bought years ago) that it makes sense to sell even at today's lower valuation, often to 1031 exchange into a nicer, newer deal at a lower basis. Lender-driven sales out of foreclosure generally won't qualify for agency debt, because they come with occupancy or deferred-maintenance problems, so those stay in the bridge world.

What Fannie is (and isn't) doing on credit

Fritz's summary of Fannie right now: "In terms of liquidity, they're in business. They want to look at deals, they want to quote deals." That hasn't changed in the last few years.

What has tightened is the credit box on smaller deals. "They're not as aggressive on deals under 15 million," he said. Fannie wants those to be more delegated, without super long-term interest-only, and is focused on repeat sponsors and more sophisticated investors rather than one-off borrowers. They'll still do those deals, just in a tighter box.

Distressed deals: it's an assumption, not new paper

Because Fannie's underwriting was more conservative, it holds far less distress. In Dallas, Fritz noted, only about two out of 25 distressed deals were Fannie loans. And Fannie generally won't touch a distressed property in its current state, "there's generally a reason why it doesn't work."

Where Fannie will engage with a troubled deal is through a loan assumption: a struggling property where a new buyer assumes the existing note, injects capital, and has a reposition plan that makes sense. "If they're going to do technically a distressed deal, it's a loan assumption. It's not new paper," Fritz said.

As for the overall health of the agency book, he described it as generally healthy, with some stress but nothing systemic. He does expect more to "capitulate" over the next 12 to 24 months, with additional Fannie and Freddie loan sales coming through.

The real cause of distress: property condition, not leverage

This was one of the most important points for owners. When Fritz looks at what's driving agency delinquency and takebacks, it's usually not the loan structure. It's the property.

"It's property condition where we see most of the issues," he said. Owners struggling with cash flow often keep distributing to investors instead of reinvesting in the asset. His advice was blunt and worth repeating: "When you buy real estate, it's a business, not a bond." Sometimes you skip a distribution to fix the roof or the siding, because older assets are "living, breathing organisms" that need capital to keep going.

He also pointed to out-of-town ownership and unfocused property managers. Colliers will tour a building they gave a month's notice on, and it's obvious no one who cares has been there, trash, deferred maintenance, no pride of ownership.

Because agency loans are non-recourse, this matters even more. "Outside of Bad Boy carveouts, all we have is the collateral," Fritz explained. It's the sponsor's job, and their obligation under the loan agreement, to maintain the property to a reasonable level. Unlike the over-leveraged bridge deals of the last cycle, agency distress is about property-level neglect, not financial engineering.

Texas market watch: San Antonio, Austin, Dallas

Fritz gave a quick read on how the agencies view the major Texas markets:

• San Antonio: The most scrutinized. It was added to the pre-review list earlier this year, and Fritz said it's where the agencies (and their portfolios) are seeing the most distress. They'll still lend, potentially up to 70 to 75% leverage, but are hyperfocused on location and asset quality.

• Austin: Not on the pre-review list, but "definitely dialed in." Heavy supply and concessions mean it needs another 12 to 24 months to absorb, though Fritz remains a long-term believer.

• Dallas: Neutral. As with every market, there are pockets of hyper supply within the metroplex and other areas that avoided it, so you can't judge it as one giant MSA.

When HUD makes sense (and when it doesn't)

For borrowers who come up a million or two short on an agency refinance, HUD is the natural next question, and Fritz has seen an uptick in HUD business this year.

On paper, HUD should offer more leverage: a 35-year amortization and a 1.15x debt service coverage minimum, versus 1.25x on a traditional agency loan. But more coverage doesn't automatically mean more proceeds. Two things get in the way. First, HUD's property condition assessment looks at everything that needs fixing over a 10 to 20-year horizon (versus roughly nine years on an agency deal), which drives replacement reserves dramatically higher, both up front and ongoing. Second, HUD interest rates run about 30 to 40 basis points higher than agency, and that lower rate on the agency side can produce more proceeds despite the higher coverage requirement.

Fritz's rule: look at every deal on its own. "Some should be an agency deal, some deals should be a bridge deal." Newer assets often fit HUD well. An 80s-vintage property that needs every window replaced, plus corrections to pool furniture, hallway widths, and counter heights to meet HUD standards, usually doesn't. And yes, Colliers still has a solid pipeline of 221(d)(4) new construction loans, just more in parts of the country that avoided the Sun Belt supply wave.

The refi wave coming at the end of the decade

Fritz shared a big-picture forecast every investor should file away. A massive refinance wave is building.

"There's trillions of dollars of multifamily real estate that has to be refinanced" between roughly 2028 and 2032, he said. Two sources feed it: the 10 and 12-year paper written at low rates in the late 2010s (2017 through 2019), and the wave of 5 and 7-year agency paper done in 2023 through 2025. All of it comes due in a compressed window, which should mean a lot more activity as the decade closes.

His broader message was optimistic. Sentiment is poor, but real estate is cyclical, and Texas still has net positive migration and job growth. "To some degree, real estate's on sale," he said. "If you just want to own good deals in good locations, I think it's a great opportunity." Just don't expect to buy and flip it in 12 to 18 months.

How to play rates: don't gamble, get in position

On interest rates, Fritz's advice was to stop trying to time the market. "It's a little bit like going to the casino," he said, given all the geopolitical and inflation variables in play.

Instead, give yourself time and get in position. If you have a December maturity, start today, get your third-party reports done, and use the full six-month window so you can rate-lock on a down day. He shared a real example: the 10-year Treasury was 4% in early March and 4.72% by late July when they filmed. He locked a deal a couple of months earlier that felt high at the time, but it penciled, and the borrower later texted him, glad they locked. On a coverage-constrained mortgage, he noted, waiting for a lower rate often wouldn't have added proceeds anyway.

He also offered a counterintuitive point about the Fed: it mainly moves short-term rates, not the fixed-rate side most CRE is priced on. "If the Fed hikes, you may see treasuries come down," he said, because it can signal recession and lower inflation, which can actually push fixed borrowing rates lower.

James summed up the practical takeaway. With insurance coming down and taxes finally easing in spots, the bigger risk on many deals isn't the rate. "If your net rental is not there, your occupancy is not there, you might have a collection problem, not an interest rate problem." So on a refinance that works, his mentality is simple: get it done.

Key Takeaways

• The agencies have liquidity. Fannie and Freddie raised allocations to about $88 billion for the year. The hard part is finding deals that pencil, not finding money.

• Credit tightened on smaller deals. Under $15 million, Fannie favors delegated structures and repeat sponsors.

• Distress is a property problem, not a leverage problem. Agency takebacks are driven by deferred maintenance and absentee ownership. Real estate is a business, not a bond.

• HUD isn't automatically more money. A 35-year amortization and 1.15x coverage can be offset by bigger reserves and higher rates. Run every deal.

• A refi wave is coming. Trillions in multifamily debt matures between roughly 2028 and 2032.

• Don't gamble on rates. Give yourself time, get in position, and rate-lock on a down day rather than trying to time the market.

The bottom line

Fritz's message balanced caution with real opportunity. Agency money is available, Texas fundamentals remain strong, and prices have reset enough that, in his words, real estate is on sale for buyers who want to own quality assets for the long haul. The keys are protecting your property condition, choosing the right loan for each specific deal, and positioning early so you can act when the window opens.

Financing or refinancing a multifamily deal and want to weigh agency, HUD, and bridge options side by side? The Old Capital team can help you find the right fit. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

Multifamily Insurance Update with Jeff King of Ramey King

Insurance quietly became one of the most painful expense lines in multifamily over the past few years. Premiums that were an afterthought during the boom suddenly ballooned, blowing up deals and squeezing cash flow. Now the tide may finally be turning.

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Jeff King, owner of Ramey King Insurance, to trace how apartment insurance costs got so high, why they're coming back down, and what owners should know before their next renewal, refinance, or acquisition.

Here's what they covered.

Meet Jeff King and Ramey King

Jeff is the owner of Ramey King Insurance, a full-service agency focused on commercial real estate, and within that, multifamily. He's in his 43rd year in the industry and runs a team of 27, about half of whom are dedicated to real estate. The firm uses its own proprietary multifamily insurance program plus other specialty markets it can access. Jeff is also a property owner himself on a small scale, which he says helps him understand the owner's side of the desk better than the average agent.

From $200 a door to $1,500 and back: the timeline

James kicked things off by asking Jeff to walk through how insurance costs have moved. Jeff has been around long enough to remember when premiums were around $200 a door. (Insurance isn't actually rated by the door, he noted, but that's how most owners budget it.)

The rough timeline he laid out:

• About 10 years ago: $200 to $250 a door.

• Peak, around 2023: pushing $1,200 to $1,500 a unit, depending on the property and its history.

• Today: he's seeing underwrites back down around $600 to $700 a door.

That's a wild ride, and understanding what drove it helps owners plan.

What caused the spike: a capacity crunch

Up until about 2021, Jeff said, the market simply had a lack of capacity for apartment insurance. Apartments carry unique exposures, fire, hail, and weather-related damage, that not every carrier wants to take on. Rates started creeping up in 2020 and 2021.

Then came the turning point. "There was a large carrier that most all the agents used," Jeff explained. "They lost its reinsurance, or at least part of it, and carriers jumped in, and rates went up," in part by taking advantage of the sudden shortage. That carrier now mostly writes only brand-new and smaller properties (up to about $10 million).

At the same time, carriers tried to shift their underwriting toward newer, 2000-and-later, Class A properties. That's a problem for the typical value-add investor. As Jeff put it, "Most of my customers made, and are making, their fortunes in properties built from 1963 to 93." Those 1980s garden-style deals, pitched roofs and fireplaces included, suddenly didn't fit many carriers' boxes, leaving a lot of owners in a lurch.

James drew a sharp parallel to lending: when there are only one or two lenders willing to do a deal, they charge more and lend less. Insurance behaved the same way. Carriers have to protect their capacity and spread their risk, no single carrier wants to write 50% of all of DFW, so when capacity tightens, rates climb.

The good news: rates are down nearly 50%

Here's the encouraging part. Rates started dropping in 2024, which is when Ramey King formed its own program. And the trend has continued.

"Here we are in mid, going on late, 2026, and rates are almost down 50% for property," Jeff said.

For owners who bought or refinanced at the peak, that's a meaningful tailwind, and a strong reason to have your policy re-shopped rather than simply renewing.

The part owners miss: deductibles quietly shifted the risk

One of the most valuable insights in the conversation was about deductibles, which many owners overlook when they focus only on the premium.

As rates rose from 2020 on, so did deductibles, especially for wind and hail. A property that carried a flat $25,000 wind-and-hail deductible 10 to 15 years ago saw that move to 1 to 2% of the building value, then 3%, then 4%, and as high as 5 to 10% on challenged properties.

Jeff shared what he called the "Jeff King theory." Once your wind-and-hail deductible climbs above about 3%, "the owner is going to end up self-insuring 95% of their storm and wind related claims." At that point, the deductible is so high that most claims never involve the insurance company at all.

That quietly improved carriers' loss ratios (their losses measured against premiums collected), which is exactly what pulled carriers back into the market. "If I'm getting a good premium from the customer, and they have a 3% deductible, and nobody's filing any claims, this is a good business," Jeff said. "Carriers love that." The lesson for owners: a lower premium with a much higher deductible isn't always the win it appears to be, you may simply be absorbing more risk yourself.

Liability and umbrellas: the newer challenge

While property rates have improved, Jeff has seen more challenges on the general liability and umbrella side over the last two years. There have long been issues around assault-and-battery limitations and exclusions.

What changed is that the agencies, Fannie and Freddie, stopped granting waivers when those coverages couldn't be obtained. They now require the coverage or won't do the loan, and the market has had to respond. For borrowers, that means liability coverage can no longer be treated as an afterthought.

How a policy breaks down: 80/20

To orient owners, Jeff gave a simple rule of thumb for how a total premium splits. Roughly 80% goes to property coverage (the building, contents, loss of rents, and weather or fire damage), and about 20% covers general liability (third-party exposure like slip-and-falls) plus the umbrella policy, which is just a higher limit of liability on top. It's a rough guide, but a useful reference point when reviewing a quote.

Shopping insurance on a refi vs a purchase

Because insurance directly affects loan proceeds, it's a key part of every financing conversation. As James noted, when underwriting a refinance, "we'll always ask, how's your insurance looking?" A reduction in premium can increase the proceeds a borrower qualifies for.

On a refinance, the process is relatively quick, about 30 days. The agency requests the insurance specifications, Ramey King reviews replacement costs, deductible configuration, and required liability coverages, and gets certificates to the mortgage company for sign-off before closing. If the existing coverage is already appropriate, it may just be an opportunity to move the policy to a better market. If it's inadequate, they'll take it over and place it somewhere better.

A new purchase takes more work. The team gathers everything about the property, including prior claims history (which can be hard to get), matches the coverage to what the mortgage company requires up front, and shops three or four carriers, including their own program. The client then picks the best option, and specimen certificates go to the lender.

Speaking of the program, Jeff said it's very competitive and usually the first place they look, with a second program as a backup. They go outside those mainly in two cases: a brand-new property that qualifies for better coverage elsewhere, or a challenged property, say, one that's 50% occupied with no updates since 1982, that requires a specialty market. On those tougher deals, claims history is the biggest driver of both price and whether coverage is even available, and the premium can run higher. The non-negotiable, though, is that the policy must carry the exact coverage the mortgage company requires.

Get an indication before you bid

Jeff's most practical advice for buyers: get an insurance indication before you make an offer. You can request one online at rameyking.com or by phone, and the team will review the T12, rent roll, and offering memorandum to put together an estimate, while also flagging anything that might make the property a challenge.

A pro tip he shared: ask the broker about prior claims. "They will have an idea," he said, even though brokers typically won't release a formal loss run until a property is under contract. Knowing the wind and fire claims history early gives you a real read on what insurance will cost.

On timing, indications can happen anytime, even before you send an LOI, and Jeff noted it's a numbers game. "It takes 10 of those to get one done." Once you're under contract, the clock is tight. A standard 60-day close needs every one of those 60 days, because insurance is just one of many items alongside inspection, survey, and appraisal. As James joked, part of his job is conducting the orchestra to get everything to close on time.

Key Takeaways

• Insurance spiked and is now easing. Premiums ran from around $200 a door up to $1,200-$1,500 at the 2023 peak, and are back near $600-$700 today, with property rates down nearly 50% from the top.

• A capacity crunch drove the spike. A major carrier lost reinsurance, others raised rates, and many pushed toward newer properties, squeezing owners of 1960s-1990s assets.

• Watch the deductible, not just the premium. Above a 3% wind/hail deductible, you're effectively self-insuring most storm claims.

• Liability is the new challenge. With agencies no longer waiving requirements, general liability and umbrella coverage must be locked in.

• Insurance affects your loan. A lower premium can boost refinance proceeds, so always re-shop rather than auto-renewing.

• Get an indication before you bid. Ask the broker about prior claims and start about 60 days out.

The bottom line

After a brutal few years, multifamily insurance is finally moving in owners' favor, with property rates down significantly from their 2023 peak. But Jeff's deeper point is that price is only half the story. The deductible you accept, the liability coverage your lender demands, and the claims history of the specific asset all shape both your premium and your risk. The owners who treat insurance as a strategic line item, and get an indication before they bid, are the ones who protect both their deal and their downside.

Underwriting a deal and want to see how today's insurance rates affect your numbers and your loan proceeds? The Old Capital team can help you size it up. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

Freddie Mac Update with Regions Bank Managing Director Rickey Mirabito

For years, one of the most beloved financing tools for smaller multifamily deals was Freddie Mac's SBL program. It's now gone, replaced by something new, and if you're buying or refinancing a deal under $10 million, the change affects how you should approach the process.

On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Rickey Mirabito of Regions Bank to unpack Freddie's new small-loan program, what borrowers are choosing right now, why the agency book is healthier than the headlines suggest, and the one habit that separates borrowers who win from those who miss out.

Here's what they covered.

Meet Rickey Mirabito and Regions

Rickey has been in agency lending for over a decade. His predecessor firm, Sabal Capital, was acquired by Regions Bank at the end of 2021 and folded into its real estate capital markets group. So for about five years now he's been with Regions, offering Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD executions.

RIP SBL: what replaced Freddie's favorite small-loan product

The Freddie Mac SBL (Small Balance Loan) program financed deals from $1 million to $7.5 million, was non-recourse, and competed directly with banks for years. At Sabal, Rickey said, "that was the only thing that we did," roughly 30 to 40 SBL loans a year over a five-to-seven-year stretch.

Borrowers loved it for a few reasons: a step-down prepayment penalty, the speed of getting an application out, coupon-based pricing (you were simply told your rate), and a free spread hold during underwriting.

That program is now gone. Freddie has transitioned it into what it calls Freddie Mac Conventional Small, for loans of $2 million to $10 million.

What's different now: spread over Treasury, no free rate hold, earlier credit review

The new program executes almost exactly like a larger $12 million conventional Freddie loan. On the front end, you get a soft quote, discuss options, and then the lender has to "hard quote" it, collecting due diligence, building a credit memo, and going into Freddie for a formal quote before you can apply.

The key mechanical changes:

• Pricing is now a spread over Treasury rather than a set coupon.

• The base prepayment penalty is defeasance or yield maintenance, not the old SBL step-down.

• You can index-lock at application, but there's no free spread or rate hold like SBL offered.

Rickey said pricing is actually a bit better under the new execution. The adjustment for borrowers is behavioral: old SBL clients were used to saying "I want an application today," and now they have to go through that front-end process first.

There's a real benefit hiding in that friction. Under the old SBL, Freddie's credit team wouldn't even touch a deal until about 50 days into underwriting. Now they review it up front, during the hard-quote memo, so you know their concerns early and get far more certainty of execution.

The sweet spot: 5-to-50 and the AMI goal

If you want the best pricing on this program, you need to understand Freddie's affordability goals. The program's focus is what Rickey called "five to 50 AMI goals," meaning 5-to-50-unit properties where roughly 50 to 60% of the units are at 80% of Area Median Income (AMI). Those deals help Freddie hit its annual affordability targets, so they price extremely competitively.

He gave a concrete example. Take two deals with the same affordability profile, say 80% of units at 80% AMI: a $3 million loan on 35 units, and a $5 million loan on 75 units. The smaller, 35-unit deal will actually price better, by about 20 to 25 basis points, purely because it fits Freddie's 5-to-50-unit goal. It's a counterintuitive but valuable insight: smaller can price better here.

One coverage to rule them all: 1.25x

Under the old SBL, minimum debt service coverage varied by market tier. Dallas County, for example, was a 1.20, while tertiary markets were 1.30 or even 1.40. That's gone. Now it's a flat 1.25x minimum coverage across the board.

For Dallas borrowers, moving from 1.20 to 1.25 sounds like a hit, but Rickey noted that because pricing shifted at the same time, you generally end up at a similar spot on loan proceeds.

There are unpublished "markets of concern," think parts of West Texas or Galveston, where Freddie starts at a 1.30. The upside of the new process is transparency: you learn that at application, and Freddie commits to it. As Rickey put it, they won't review everything at a 1.25 and then surprise you with a 1.30 on the back end. "They're going to commit to where they came out on the front end."

The 2026 volume picture

Halfway through the year, both Freddie and Fannie were targeting roughly $88 billion each and sitting around $30 billion, meaning they have a lot of ground to make up. Rickey said Freddie is doing some "big game hunting," leaning into loans of $75 million and up, but he expects them to find ways to get close to target.

Heading into fall, he anticipates a natural slowdown given where Treasuries are, but also potential spread relief, or Freddie getting more aggressive on credit and interest-only to push proceeds and keep deals moving.

What borrowers are choosing: 5-year paper, floaters, and smarter prepay

Rickey shared what he's seeing borrowers actually pick right now:

• Five-year paper. A large portion of business is five-year loans. The seven-year spread is great, but the five-year all-in note rate is often better, and borrowers want flexibility rather than locking in long.

• Freddie floaters. After not quoting a floating-rate deal in ages, he's seeing demand, in part because the prepayment penalty gets waived if you roll into a Freddie perm loan. Borrowers use it to get to year two or three.

• Smarter prepayment structures. Step-downs have gotten too punitive on proceeds. Borrowers are looking at structures like a "5-3," three years of yield maintenance followed by 1% and 1%, which gives flexibility to refinance in year three or four without being stuck in a full yield-maintenance loan.

A foreclosure that still got done

One of the most instructive parts was a case study. A sponsor had a recent foreclosure, normally a "scarlet letter" that scares off lenders. Fannie Mae was adamant: no. But Freddie ultimately did the deal.

Why? The story held up. The foreclosure had been forced by the sponsor's limited partner equity, a single-check equity partner who decided not to put in more money, so the keys went back. The sponsor had negotiated in good faith with the lender, and the situation was genuinely out of their control. Freddie got comfortable once they understood the "why and the what," and closed it at a 1.30 coverage and 70% LTV, even getting the borrower cash out at a time when almost no one was getting cash out.

Rickey's takeaway: agencies will ask a lot of questions, and that's fine. "Can we help them get to a decision and answer the questions in full and clear from the start?" The trouble begins when a sponsor can't give a straight answer, that's when a lender walks.

He contrasted two borrower stories. A sponsor whose problem is an isolated outlier, with a clear, good-faith explanation, is very financeable. A sponsor with five loans where three are underperforming, all visible in the agency data, is a much harder story. Credit ultimately wants to know one thing: did you take care of everything within your control? Fires, foundation issues, and softening markets happen, but how you responded is what matters.

The agency book is healthier than you think

Despite all the doom talk, the agency portfolios are in strong shape. Citing a recent TREP report, Rickey noted delinquency actually dipped about half a percentage point year over year, and overall agency delinquency sits under 1%, around 0.7%.

"99.32% of the agency loans, and this is Fannie and Freddie, are current," he said.

The real pain is concentrated in one place: the small-balance world. Freddie's small-balance program carries roughly a 5% delinquency rate, which likely explains why they overhauled it. Those are the deals getting "kicked around," with note buyers offering below par, and Rickey expects a good number of small-balance foreclosures ahead. He pointed to one going into foreclosure at just 15 to 20% occupancy, the kind of asset where the question shifts from "was this an owner issue?" to "what's wrong with the property itself?"

That distress, though, is also the opportunity. Smaller borrowers often have thinner balance sheets, less experience, and less willingness to keep pouring money in than a conventional operator with 15 or 20 agency loans. As those small-balance assets sell, Rickey said, it becomes the long-awaited reset, a chance for good operators and new buyers to acquire at an attractive basis.

The real message: be prepared

Asked for a final takeaway, Rickey was emphatic: be prepared and be organized.

Nobody controls Treasury rates. But when rates dip and everyone rushes to refinance at once, borrowers who aren't ready get stuck in a log jam. "If you know you're looking to refinance in the next six to eight months, we should be getting your ducks in a row now," he said, so you can react quickly to a favorable Treasury move and index-lock. Providing your property information, an REO schedule, and a personal financial statement costs you nothing. What costs you is being slow to react and missing the dip.

James added an important reframe on rates. Borrowers fixate on a 4.5% ten-year Treasury and assume financing is too expensive. But agency spreads are very low right now, sometimes as tight as 110 to 150 basis points, so the all-in rate is still under 6%. Back in 2017 and 2018, spreads were closer to 250 over, and even with Treasuries in the 3s, the all-in rate was around 5.5%. In other words, today's all-in cost isn't as far off history as the headline number suggests. On a five-year deal at a 4.50% to 4.60% Treasury plus a 110 spread, you're still sub-6%, and deals can still work.

Key Takeaways

• SBL is gone. Freddie Mac Conventional Small ($2M-$10M) replaced it, priced as a spread over Treasury with defeasance/yield-maintenance prepay.

• Credit reviews earlier now. Freddie touches the deal up front, giving far more certainty of execution and no back-end surprises.

• 5-to-50 is the sweet spot. Small properties (5-50 units) with strong 80% AMI affordability price 20-25 bps better.

• Coverage is a flat 1.25x, with unpublished "markets of concern" starting at 1.30, disclosed at application.

• The agency book is healthy. Over 99.3% of Fannie and Freddie loans are current. The distress is concentrated in small-balance loans (~5% delinquency).

• Be prepared. Get your documents in order now so you can index-lock on a Treasury dip. Remember the all-in rate, not just the headline Treasury.

The bottom line

Freddie's shift from SBL to Conventional Small means more process up front, but also better pricing and far more certainty. Meanwhile, the agency portfolios remain remarkably healthy, and the real distress in the small-balance space is creating the reset that patient, well-capitalized buyers have been waiting for. Rickey's advice cuts across all of it: control what you can, tell a clear story, and stay organized so you can move the moment the window opens.

Financing or refinancing a multifamily deal and want to compare Freddie, Fannie, and HUD side by side? The Old Capital team can help you find the right execution. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com

August 2026 Multifamily Financing and Investing Webinar

Every month, Old Capital's James Eng hosts a financing and investing webinar to take the pulse of the multifamily market. This month's theme was a single word: inflection. Are we at the bottom of the cycle, the beginning of the next one, or still grinding through the pain? Here's James's full read on where we stand, backed by DFW transaction data, foreclosure trends, supply numbers, and the latest lender and operator earnings calls.

Which side of the bottom are you on?

James opened with the classic market-cycle curve, the emotional roller coaster from euphoria to despair and back. The peak euphoria was the back half of 2021 into 2022. Since then, the market has slid down through 2023, 2024, and 2025, and now sits in 2026. The hard truth about the bottom, he noted, is that "you really don't know the bottom of the market until you pass it, and usually once you're way past it."

So where are we? It depends on who you ask. People on the fearful, left-hand side point to real headwinds: foreclosures still coming that will pressure pricing, negative leverage on deals bought at 5 to 6% cap rates with 6 to 7% interest, ongoing negative lease tradeouts and concessions in Dallas, and the 10-year Treasury climbing 50 basis points since his last webinar.

But people on the hopeful side see reasons for optimism: it's now more expensive to buy a house than to rent a Class A apartment, supply has peaked and is leasing up with little more coming (one of the few things you can actually predict in multifamily), there's less equity but plenty of debt available, and buyers can purchase below replacement cost, historically a great entry point.

James's own read: the Class C space is still on the left-hand side, with more deals that have to trade and flush through the system. But much of Class A may already be past the bottom.

Four themes shaping the market

James ran his whole deck through ChatGPT to pull the big themes, and landed on four:

• Pricing has reset, and lenders are now taking discounts. The biggest development is lenders accepting a discount to their original loan balance, sometimes 15%, sometimes 40% or more. That's finally clearing deals.

• Liquidity is returning. Agencies and bridge lenders both have plenty of money, though they're focused on larger, Class A deals.

• The stress is concentrated in B and C. There haven't been many Class A foreclosures. The distress is mostly on bridge loans originated in 2021 and 2022.

• Renewals are strong, but new leases are hard. Concessions, new supply, and tenants trading up are forcing C-class properties to compete with even deeper concessions.

DFW is slower, but still moving

The market "feels" slow, but James offered a good analogy: if 2021 and 2022 were going 100 miles an hour, today is more like 50. It feels slow by comparison, but you're still moving at 50.

The data backs that up. Year to date (roughly January through August), about 104 DFW properties sold, totaling around 25,000 units. The majority were A and B deals, with less C-class trading.

The deals fall into buckets. Some qualified for agency or life-company financing, stabilized properties around 90% occupancy that took a 5 or 7-year Fannie or Freddie loan. Others were distressed and needed a bridge loan to happen. As James emphasized, "understanding the financing right from the beginning, whether it's a listed deal or off-market, is key right now," because it's driving pricing. Distressed deals are pulling down the pricing of clean, stabilized deals, though value-add and REO deals require building in capex and interest carry that buyers didn't have to worry about back in 2015 to 2019.

The reset in real numbers

James walked through actual deals, comparing the seller's old loan to the new buyer's loan (sourced from Yardi):

• 152 units, East Fort Worth: Bought in 2022 with a $12.8 million loan. New buyer in May: $8 million.

• Costa Valencia: A $12 million loan in 2021, resized to $9.5 million, often with the same lender.

• Others moved from $12.9M to $12.1M, and $10.7M to $8.7M, on new bridge loans. One went up, $6M to $7M, likely because capex was rolled in.

• Tuscana: A well-occupied deal that qualified for a Fannie Mae loan at about 5.5% fixed.

• South Point (northeast Dallas): An REO deal.

The pattern: lenders are financing their own deals, bringing in a new buyer through a listing or by calling GPs directly and saying, in effect, "buy it for the loan amount and we'll give you 85% financing."

The foreclosure pipeline

Foreclosures are today's activity and tomorrow's listings. In Dallas, James counted about 23 foreclosures that have actually happened. Looking at eight of them, nearly all were debt funds and non-recourse bridge loans, where the maturity came due or the deal was on floating rate at higher leverage.

A couple were Fannie Mae takebacks, and the reason is important: Fannie generally isn't foreclosing over non-payment. It's foreclosing over the condition of the asset. On a loan from 2018 or 2019, Fannie's annual inspection may flag life-safety issues and deferred maintenance, trigger a stricter property condition assessment, and require the owner to put up additional money. If the owner can't, they can get foreclosed on. Fannie's delinquency rate is inching up, higher than you'd expect, though not dramatic.

Why renters are staying put

On the demand side, James highlighted the single biggest driver for apartments: the gap between the cost of owning a home and renting an apartment is the widest it's been since tracking began in 2005, close to $1,200 a month, versus under $500 back in 2015 to 2018. Higher rates hurt multifamily owners, but they've also made buying a house far more expensive, which keeps Class A renters renting. On their calls, Camden and MAA noted that only about 10% of their move-outs are going to buy houses, an all-time low.

Supply is finally rolling over

This is what everyone has been waiting for. Deliveries peaked around 150,000 units per quarter, close to 600,000 units annually in 2024. That's now down to about 75,000 units in the second quarter, one of the lowest readings in a while, and roughly back to the healthy supply levels of 2015 and 2016. As these units get absorbed, the hope is that concessions come off the A product first, then the B product, and the market stabilizes.

Rent growth tells the supply story by market. San Francisco and San Jose lead the country, largely because they saw little new supply. The high-supply Sun Belt markets are still negative year over year: Dallas around -3%, Houston roughly -4%, Austin down 5 to 6%, and San Antonio also negative. Concessions are heaviest in the South and, by class, heaviest in Class C.

Renewals are everything now

The operating math has flipped. Typical new lease tradeouts are running around -3%, while renewals are up 3 to 4%. That makes keeping your existing tenants the whole ballgame for protecting NOI. Back when tradeouts were +15 to 20%, losing a tenant wasn't a big deal because the replacement lease jumped. Today, as James put it, "renewals are everything in terms of keeping your NOI in place."

What the lenders said

James summarized several recent earnings calls:

Arbor, which was doing roughly $1 billion a month in bridge loans in 2021 and 2022, said sentiment is poor with rates up, and nobody wants to refinance or buy at this level, though that can change fast. About 3% of its Fannie book is delinquent (low compared to its bridge book). On the bridge side, its "legacy portfolio" of 2021-22 loans is about $5 billion, with roughly $1 billion delinquent or in REO, and it anticipates four to six quarters to resolve. Its current strategy is telling: rather than take assets back and pour in capital, Arbor now often forecloses and sells almost the same day to a new buyer, providing 75 to 85% of total capitalization so the buyer's financing doesn't fall through. It doesn't want to build a big REO portfolio; it wants operators who will execute the business plan.

Walker & Dunlop, a major Fannie/Freddie lender, noted everyone is on delay unless they have to act. On why the agencies ask so many questions: the firm had deals where borrowers forged documents around financials, purchase price, or balance sheets. When that surfaces, Fannie and Freddie investigate and take deals back, and 95% of Walker & Dunlop's losses came from these fraudulent sponsors. Its overall agency book, by contrast, is healthy, with delinquency of just 28 basis points.

NewPoint (an agency lender acquired by Franklin BSP) echoed the sentiment: deals are taking longer, less agency volume because of rates, and a shift toward newer-vintage bridge investments. It's getting beaten on spread, agency runs about 150 over Treasury while bridge might be 250, and it won't chase deals down to levels that don't compensate for the risk. One watch-list deal was a 2021 origination where a new borrower was brought in and still couldn't execute after a year, a reminder that being the first buyer in can mean being too early.

The common thread on lender competition: they can compete on price, on proceeds, on structure (allowing assumptions or pref equity), or by being more aggressive on underwriting, because there are a lot of bridge lenders fighting for deals.

What the operators said

On the operator side, James focused on Camden and MAA, both Sun Belt-heavy. Camden made its biggest sale in a while, roughly $1.6 billion, selling all of its California properties and redeploying into Sun Belt markets (Atlanta, Orlando, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Charlotte) plus share buybacks, citing California's regulatory environment and slower growth. Its quarter showed new leases at -3.3%, renewals at +2.8%, a blended -0.2%, and about 40% turnover.

The most interesting exchange was about future rent growth. With rents essentially flat across 2024, 2025, and 2026 at the A level, an analyst asked about "hockey stick" growth. The executive wouldn't promise 20%, but pointed to history: after being down about 5% in 2009-2010, the years 2011 through 2019 averaged around 4% rent growth (a low of 3%, a high of 6.5%). His bet is that once the supply glut clears, similar growth returns. James's take: nobody is underwriting that today, so if a deal works at 1 to 2% growth, great, with the upside being 4% in 2027-2028.

On acquisitions, Camden and MAA are trading out older 1980s and 1990s assets around a 6 cap and buying newer (2000s and up) at mid-4s to 5. Expense growth ran about 2%, though they're still giving concessions of 8 to 10 weeks in a market like Charlotte.

Financing options right now

James closed with where financing actually stands. Back at the spring webinar, everyone expected a rate cut, the 10-year was in the low 4s. It has since run to about 4.7%, with a possible Fed hike on the table, making refinances and closings more challenging. Buyers now have to build that in, and sellers are increasingly accepting that this may be their best price.

• Banks: Starting at prime (6.75%), down to about 6.25% for strong clients or assets, so roughly 6 to 7%, close to agency. Expect a shorter 20-to-25-year amortization, recourse, and possible deposits, but faster 30-to-45-day closings. Still the go-to under $3 to $5 million.

• Freddie Mac: SBL is gone, so Freddie is focused on larger deals but can still do $2 million and up. It's behind on its caps and will lean in, with thin spreads over Treasury. Even with the 10-year near 4.6 to 4.7%, a buydown can get you into the 5.5 to 5.75% range on larger deals, with smaller deals in the sixes.

• Fannie Mae: Still very active. The Tuscana deal was 75% leverage, 7-year fixed, 4 years interest-only, around 5.5%. Expect 45 to 60-day closings and plenty of capacity.

• Non-recourse bridge: More Class A deals are going bridge than usual, given where Treasuries are, with some borrowers choosing floating rate and buying a cap.

Key Takeaways

• This is an inflection point. Class A may be past the bottom, while Class C likely has more distress to flush through.

• Lenders are taking discounts. Cuts of 15% to 40%+ on original loan balances are finally clearing deals.

• DFW is still transacting, about 104 properties and 25,000 units year to date, mostly A and B.

• Renewals are everything. With new lease tradeouts around -3%, keeping tenants protects NOI.

• Supply is rolling over, from roughly 600,000 units in 2024 down toward 2015-16 levels, setting up better rent growth in 2027.

• Debt is available across the board, banks under $5M, Fannie and Freddie for larger and stabilized, and bridge for higher-leverage plays.

The bottom line

James's message was cautiously optimistic. The distress is real and will take another 12 to 24 months to work through, especially in the B and C space. But pricing has reset, supply is finally slowing, renters are staying put, and debt is plentiful. For disciplined buyers, this is shaping up to be the reset the market has been talking about for years, and the entry point may be here for those willing to underwrite conservatively and hold for the long term.

Looking at an acquisition or a refinance and want it sized up? Reach out to the Old Capital team at oldcapitallending.com, and join the next monthly webinar for the latest market read.

August 2026 Multifamily Financing and Investing Webinar

James Eng's August 2026 market update: he walks through DFW multifamily transactions so far this year, how national trends compare to DFW, what recent lender and REIT earnings calls are signaling, and the financing options available to owners right now. If you're trying to read the current market, start here. Questions about financing? Drop them in the comments.

Freddie Mac Update with Regions Bank Managing Director Rickey Mirabito

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Raising Equity in Today's Market with Cash Flow Portal

Raising capital is one of the toughest parts of any deal. Perry Zheng of Cash Flow Portal walks through how the platform helps multifamily investors manage and streamline their equity raises. Curious how tech can make your next raise easier? Ask your questions below.

The Biggest Expense for Multifamily Investors — Property Taxes (and How to Minimize Them in Texas)

Property taxes are the single biggest expense on most Texas multifamily deals. The team from Valorem Tax Advisors breaks down the current property tax environment and how investors can work to lower their tax bill. Watching taxes eat into your returns? Share your experience in the comments.