Fannie Mae Update with Fritz Waldvogel of Colliers
For any multifamily buyer, the agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are the backbone of permanent financing. So when the market gets choppy, the question every sponsor asks is: are the agencies still lending, what will they lend on, and how do I get my deal to the closing table?
On this episode, Old Capital's James Eng sits down with Fritz Waldvogel of Colliers to get a clear read on where agency lending stands, when a HUD loan makes sense, and the massive refinance wave already forming on the horizon.
Here's what they covered.
Meet Fritz Waldvogel and Colliers
Fritz leads multifamily financing through Fannie Mae and HUD/FHA at Colliers, which recently rebranded from Colliers Mortgage to Colliers Debt and Structured Finance. He and his team have done roughly two to three billion dollars in transactions with Old Capital over the years, and Colliers has sponsored the Old Capital Conference all ten years, since before day one, as James put it.
From bridge to agency: how the market flipped
Fritz and James started by reminiscing about 2021 and 2022. Back then, bridge debt ruled. "I think 85 to 90% of what we financed in 21 and 22 was bridge," Fritz said, and a lot of those bridge deals were only qualifying at 30 to 40% leverage on an agency basis. In other words, borrowers were reaching for aggressive bridge loans on deals that agencies would only have lightly leveraged.
Today, that has reversed, and the agencies have moved back to center stage.
The agencies have money to lend
Here's reassuring news for buyers: liquidity is not the problem. In 2025, both agencies came close to their targets, doing around $70 billion combined, a big number given where they'd been. For 2026, their allocations were raised considerably to roughly $88 billion.
"There's still plenty of liquidity through the end of the year," Fritz said. The real constraint isn't the lender's willingness, it's finding deals that pencil. Investment sales activity has been slower than expected, which was supposed to drive a lot of this year's financing volume.
Refi vs acquisition: now a 50/50 market
Last year, Fritz's business was roughly 75% refinances and 25% acquisitions. This year it's closer to 50/50. The swing factor is whether the seller's bid-ask spread has finally narrowed enough for a deal to work.
The deals that are trading, he noted, tend to be one-off stabilized properties where an owner has a low enough basis (they bought years ago) that it makes sense to sell even at today's lower valuation, often to 1031 exchange into a nicer, newer deal at a lower basis. Lender-driven sales out of foreclosure generally won't qualify for agency debt, because they come with occupancy or deferred-maintenance problems, so those stay in the bridge world.
What Fannie is (and isn't) doing on credit
Fritz's summary of Fannie right now: "In terms of liquidity, they're in business. They want to look at deals, they want to quote deals." That hasn't changed in the last few years.
What has tightened is the credit box on smaller deals. "They're not as aggressive on deals under 15 million," he said. Fannie wants those to be more delegated, without super long-term interest-only, and is focused on repeat sponsors and more sophisticated investors rather than one-off borrowers. They'll still do those deals, just in a tighter box.
Distressed deals: it's an assumption, not new paper
Because Fannie's underwriting was more conservative, it holds far less distress. In Dallas, Fritz noted, only about two out of 25 distressed deals were Fannie loans. And Fannie generally won't touch a distressed property in its current state, "there's generally a reason why it doesn't work."
Where Fannie will engage with a troubled deal is through a loan assumption: a struggling property where a new buyer assumes the existing note, injects capital, and has a reposition plan that makes sense. "If they're going to do technically a distressed deal, it's a loan assumption. It's not new paper," Fritz said.
As for the overall health of the agency book, he described it as generally healthy, with some stress but nothing systemic. He does expect more to "capitulate" over the next 12 to 24 months, with additional Fannie and Freddie loan sales coming through.
The real cause of distress: property condition, not leverage
This was one of the most important points for owners. When Fritz looks at what's driving agency delinquency and takebacks, it's usually not the loan structure. It's the property.
"It's property condition where we see most of the issues," he said. Owners struggling with cash flow often keep distributing to investors instead of reinvesting in the asset. His advice was blunt and worth repeating: "When you buy real estate, it's a business, not a bond." Sometimes you skip a distribution to fix the roof or the siding, because older assets are "living, breathing organisms" that need capital to keep going.
He also pointed to out-of-town ownership and unfocused property managers. Colliers will tour a building they gave a month's notice on, and it's obvious no one who cares has been there, trash, deferred maintenance, no pride of ownership.
Because agency loans are non-recourse, this matters even more. "Outside of Bad Boy carveouts, all we have is the collateral," Fritz explained. It's the sponsor's job, and their obligation under the loan agreement, to maintain the property to a reasonable level. Unlike the over-leveraged bridge deals of the last cycle, agency distress is about property-level neglect, not financial engineering.
Texas market watch: San Antonio, Austin, Dallas
Fritz gave a quick read on how the agencies view the major Texas markets:
San Antonio: The most scrutinized. It was added to the pre-review list earlier this year, and Fritz said it's where the agencies (and their portfolios) are seeing the most distress. They'll still lend, potentially up to 70 to 75% leverage, but are hyperfocused on location and asset quality.
Austin: Not on the pre-review list, but "definitely dialed in." Heavy supply and concessions mean it needs another 12 to 24 months to absorb, though Fritz remains a long-term believer.
Dallas: Neutral. As with every market, there are pockets of hyper supply within the metroplex and other areas that avoided it, so you can't judge it as one giant MSA.
When HUD makes sense (and when it doesn't)
For borrowers who come up a million or two short on an agency refinance, HUD is the natural next question, and Fritz has seen an uptick in HUD business this year.
On paper, HUD should offer more leverage: a 35-year amortization and a 1.15x debt service coverage minimum, versus 1.25x on a traditional agency loan. But more coverage doesn't automatically mean more proceeds. Two things get in the way. First, HUD's property condition assessment looks at everything that needs fixing over a 10 to 20-year horizon (versus roughly nine years on an agency deal), which drives replacement reserves dramatically higher, both up front and ongoing. Second, HUD interest rates run about 30 to 40 basis points higher than agency, and that lower rate on the agency side can produce more proceeds despite the higher coverage requirement.
Fritz's rule: look at every deal on its own. "Some should be an agency deal, some deals should be a bridge deal." Newer assets often fit HUD well. An 80s-vintage property that needs every window replaced, plus corrections to pool furniture, hallway widths, and counter heights to meet HUD standards, usually doesn't. And yes, Colliers still has a solid pipeline of 221(d)(4) new construction loans, just more in parts of the country that avoided the Sun Belt supply wave.
The refi wave coming at the end of the decade
Fritz shared a big-picture forecast every investor should file away. A massive refinance wave is building.
"There's trillions of dollars of multifamily real estate that has to be refinanced" between roughly 2028 and 2032, he said. Two sources feed it: the 10 and 12-year paper written at low rates in the late 2010s (2017 through 2019), and the wave of 5 and 7-year agency paper done in 2023 through 2025. All of it comes due in a compressed window, which should mean a lot more activity as the decade closes.
His broader message was optimistic. Sentiment is poor, but real estate is cyclical, and Texas still has net positive migration and job growth. "To some degree, real estate's on sale," he said. "If you just want to own good deals in good locations, I think it's a great opportunity." Just don't expect to buy and flip it in 12 to 18 months.
How to play rates: don't gamble, get in position
On interest rates, Fritz's advice was to stop trying to time the market. "It's a little bit like going to the casino," he said, given all the geopolitical and inflation variables in play.
Instead, give yourself time and get in position. If you have a December maturity, start today, get your third-party reports done, and use the full six-month window so you can rate-lock on a down day. He shared a real example: the 10-year Treasury was 4% in early March and 4.72% by late July when they filmed. He locked a deal a couple of months earlier that felt high at the time, but it penciled, and the borrower later texted him, glad they locked. On a coverage-constrained mortgage, he noted, waiting for a lower rate often wouldn't have added proceeds anyway.
He also offered a counterintuitive point about the Fed: it mainly moves short-term rates, not the fixed-rate side most CRE is priced on. "If the Fed hikes, you may see treasuries come down," he said, because it can signal recession and lower inflation, which can actually push fixed borrowing rates lower.
James summed up the practical takeaway. With insurance coming down and taxes finally easing in spots, the bigger risk on many deals isn't the rate. "If your net rental is not there, your occupancy is not there, you might have a collection problem, not an interest rate problem." So on a refinance that works, his mentality is simple: get it done.
Key Takeaways
The agencies have liquidity. Fannie and Freddie raised allocations to about $88 billion for the year. The hard part is finding deals that pencil, not finding money.
Credit tightened on smaller deals. Under $15 million, Fannie favors delegated structures and repeat sponsors.
Distress is a property problem, not a leverage problem. Agency takebacks are driven by deferred maintenance and absentee ownership. Real estate is a business, not a bond.
HUD isn't automatically more money. A 35-year amortization and 1.15x coverage can be offset by bigger reserves and higher rates. Run every deal.
A refi wave is coming. Trillions in multifamily debt matures between roughly 2028 and 2032.
Don't gamble on rates. Give yourself time, get in position, and rate-lock on a down day rather than trying to time the market.
The bottom line
Fritz's message balanced caution with real opportunity. Agency money is available, Texas fundamentals remain strong, and prices have reset enough that, in his words, real estate is on sale for buyers who want to own quality assets for the long haul. The keys are protecting your property condition, choosing the right loan for each specific deal, and positioning early so you can act when the window opens.
Financing or refinancing a multifamily deal and want to weigh agency, HUD, and bridge options side by side? The Old Capital team can help you find the right fit. Reach out at oldcapitallending.com